The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and gen
The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.
Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.
Inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP declined for the second consecutive quarter, raising concerns that we are already in, or headed for, a recession. Apart from the labor market where national job gains remain robust, most national economic indicators weakened significantly between Q1 and Q2. While forecasters are not currently expecting additional declines in economic activity, GDP is now expected to grow only 1.3% over the next year. Based on the deteriorating national economic outlook, the outlook for Louisiana and all metro areas is also being downgraded. After gaining only 2,700 jobs between Q1 and Q2, the Baseline projection is for the state to lose 2,400 jobs over the next four quarters. Statewide inflation-adjusted GDP is expected to contract again in Q2, bringing the state to the edge of an economic downturn. Employment growth is expected to be very weak in every metro area in the next year. The housing market remains a bright spot, with prices expected to remain above average until mid-2023.
Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19.
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2022 Report Release Schedule
Fourth Quarter: November 18, 2022