Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast 2022:Q4

The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.

Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.

Executive Summary
After contracting in the first and second quarters of the year, growth in inflation-adjusted U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebounded at a healthy 2.6% clip in the third quarter. Despite the strong showing, professional forecasters now expect the U.S. economy to grow at half the pace that was projected three months ago because of lingering inflation. As a result, the economic outlook for Louisiana is also being downgraded from last quarter’s report. Louisiana’s inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to contract in four of the next five quarters. Labor and housing markets, which have been bright spots, are also expected to slow. Statewide job gains are projected to be “flat" over the next year, and the unemployment rate is projected to begin gradually increasing. Home price growth expected to slow sharply – but remain positive – in 2023. Job growth is also expected to slow in every metro area of the state, particularly in the second-half of 2023.

Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making.

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2023 Report Release Schedule

First Quarter: February 17, 2023
Second Quarter: May 19, 2023
Third Quarter: August 18, 2023
Fourth Quarter: November 17, 2023