The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and gen
The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.
Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.
Professional forecasters have weakened their outlook for the U.S. economy for the third consecutive quarter. Growth is now expected to average less than 3% over the next four quarters. Inflation is the greatest threat to the economic recovery, and the Federal Reserve has signaled their intention to increase interest rates several times in 2022. This will dampen the pace of recovery both nationally and locally. Employment in Louisiana rebounded from a sluggish third quarter with (net) gains of almost 28,000 in Q4. However, the economic outlook for Louisiana is being downgraded, with growth expected to slow in the second half of 2022. Over the next four quarters, the state is expected to gain 33,000 jobs. The Alexandria and Houma-Thibodaux metro regions are expected to experience the weakest growth over the next year, while the Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and Lake Charles regions are expected to experience the fastest growth. At the current pace of the economic recovery, Louisiana is now expected to regain all COVID-related jobs losses in the first quarter of 2023.
Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19.
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2022 Report Release Schedule
Second Quarter: May 20, 2022
Third Quarter: August 19, 2022
Fourth Quarter: November 18, 2022