The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and gen
The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.
Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.
The outlook for the national economy has strengthened considerably in recent months. As a result, the outlook for key economic indicators in Louisiana has also improved and is the strongest it has been in the past year. The state gained more than 44,000 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2020, with every metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the state experiencing growth. The MSAs experiencing the fastest job growth included New Orleans (3.0%), Houma-Thibodaux (2.9%), Shreveport-Bossier (2.6%), and Baton Rouge (2.4%). Baseline projections are for continued growth in every MSA over the next five quarters, accounting for more than 56,000 additional jobs statewide.
Despite the improved outlook, a full recovery for most economic indicators in the state is (now) not expected until late 2022 or early 2023. The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high as both initial and continued unemployment claims remain well-above historical norms. Home price growth continues to be the brightest indicator as quarterly growth is expected to average around 3% for the remainder of the year.
Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19.
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2021 Report Release Schedule
Second Quarter: May 21, 2021
Third Quarter: August 20, 2021
Fourth Quarter: November 19, 2021