2020:Q3 Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast

The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.

Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.

2020:Q3 Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast

Executive Summary
Economic activity declined sharply in the first-half of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Louisiana’s economy contracted at an annualized rate of 6.6% in the first quarter of the year as the national economy entered its first official recession since 2008. Between the first and second quarters of 2020, the state lost more than 218,000 jobs as the unemployment rate increased to 13.0%. Consumer spending and job openings in Louisiana remain well-below historical norms. Economic activity is expected to pick up in the second-half of the year. However, the pace of recovery in Louisiana is projected to be slower than that of the nation. By the end of 2020, the Baseline projections point to the state’s economy being 7% smaller than it was at the end of 2019. Compared to the 2020:Q2 report, the outlook for state tax collections and home prices have improved. Every metropolitan statistical area is also expected to experience positive job growth in the second-half of 2020. However, this job growth is not expected to be robust enough to offset the losses from the first-half of the year. Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, and the New Orleans metro areas all experienced Q1-Q2 job losses in excess of 10%. The Baton Rouge region is projected to experience the strongest job growth in the state in the coming quarters. 

Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19. 

Report
2020:Q3 Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast

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2020 Report Release Schedule
Fourth Quarter: November 20, 2020