The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and gen
The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.
Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.
Professional forecasters have weakened their outlook for the U.S. economy for the fourth consecutive quarter. Following a decline in real GDP in the first quarter of 2022, forecasters are anticipating growth around 2.0% for the coming year. This is a significant downgrade in the economic outlook from the previous quarter, due in part to the Federal Reserve’s recent guidance that interest rates will likely increase much faster than previously expected in an effort to control inflation. Louisiana is now expected to gain roughly 21,000 jobs over the next four quarters, 40% less than projected last quarter. Home prices and GDP are also now expected to slow sharply beginning in late 2022 and continuing into next year. The Houma-Thibodaux, Lafayette, and New Orleans metro areas are expected to experience the fastest job growth in the state in the coming year. Statewide, the number of jobs remains about 5% below pre-COVID levels (roughly 81,000 jobs), with a full recovery not expected until 2024.
Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19.
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2022 Report Release Schedule
Third Quarter: August 19, 2022
Fourth Quarter: November 18, 2022